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Kitchener Waterloo Real Estate Market Report February 2025

NEW LISTINGS RISE, WHILE HOME SALES DECLINE IN WATERLOO REGION

WHAT IMPACT WILL TARIFFS HAVE IN THE UPCOMING MONTHS

While February’s home sales were affected by concerns over tariffs and their potential impact on employment, the market showed some encouraging signs. We saw a steady increase in new listings while prices remained stable,” notes Christal Moura, spokesperson for the Waterloo Region market. “The month’s significant snowfall created practical challenges for buyers and sellers, affecting property viewings and transactions. However, I am seeing positive indicators in the market, with consistent attendance at open houses, pre-listing appointments, steady mortgage pre-approvals, and buyers on the sidelines carefully watching for the right opportunity to make their move.

As we navigate these shifting dynamics in the Waterloo Region housing market, it’s important to remember that while sales may be down, the increase in inventory reflects growing opportunities for buyers, said Moura.

The Bank of Canada has scheduled it’s next financial report and rate announcement for March 12th 2025. According to TD Economist Derek Burleton, the Bank of Canada is likely to cut its lending rate at the upcoming announcement by 25 basis points.

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Kitchener Waterloo Real Estate Market Report June 2024

INCREASED INVENTORY AND LOWER PRICES PROVIDE OPPORTUNITIES FOR BUYERS

WATERLOO REGION HOUSING MARKET IS COOLING

“The average selling price for residential properties has decreased by 5.8 per cent since June 2023, with detached homes showing the most significant drop at 10.3 percent. This indicates a broader softness in the market,” says Moura. “The silver lining is this presents a more favourable pricing environment for buyers, with more choices, greater flexibility, and the potential to negotiate better deals.”

“The Waterloo Region housing market is cooling, with a year-over-year decrease in home sales in June, while the number of homes for sale is rising, offering more inventory to buyers,” says Christal Moura, Cornerstone spokesperson for the Waterloo Region market area.”

NEW LOCAL REAL ESTATE BOARD

Cornerstone Association of REALTORS® (Cornerstone) is a brand-new, novel association formed on July 1, 2024. Representing REALTORS® serving in the markets of Mississauga, Burlington, Hamilton, Waterloo Region, Niagara North, Haldimand County, Norfolk County and surrounding areas, it will become Ontario’s second-largest real estate board comprised of nearly 9,000 REALTORS®.

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Kitchener Waterloo Real Estate Market Report May 2024

WATERLOO REGION SEES DIP IN HOME SALES DUE TO SLUGGISH CONDO MARKET

BANK OF CANADA LOWERS INTEREST RATE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 4 YEARS

“May saw a dip in the number of sales across all categories, with condo apartments experiencing the largest drop,” says Christal Moura, president of WRAR. “The Condo market also had the greatest supply level, posing a challenge for sellers, especially for units with one or fewer bedrooms, where the current inventory level exceeds buyer demand.”

“This spring, we are witnessing a significant increase in the availability of apartment-style condos, with a record high number of units on the market,” stated Moura. “At the same time, we are observing a shift in demand away from smaller-sized condo units, potentially influenced by the higher interest rates impacting investor market activity for this property type.”

LOWERING RATES TOO QUICKLY COULD JEOPARDIZE PROGRESS

The Bank of Canada has lowered its key interest rate to 4.75 per cent, marking the bank’s first rate cut since March 2020.
But Macklem stressed that the Bank of Canada is going to take things “one meeting at a time.”
Canadians can reasonably expect more cuts so long as inflation continues to ease, and the bank maintains its confidence that inflation is steadily approaching the bank’s two per cent goal, Macklem said.
“We don’t want monetary policy to be more restrictive than it needs to be to get inflation back to target. But if we lower our policy interest rate too quickly, we could jeopardize the progress we’ve made,” he said.

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Kitchener Waterloo Real Estate Market Report March 2024

RECORD LOW IN HOME SALES DURING MARCH

HOME PRICES HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING SINCE DECEMBER

“While home sales in Waterloo Region hit a record low for March in over two decades, we’re also witnessing a positive trend,” says Christal Moura, president of WRAR. Over the past three months, prices and activity have started to pick up, and I expect this momentum will continue into the spring.”

“Home prices have been gradually increasing since December, which is a typical trend,” explains Moura. “The rate and extent of further increases will depend on the willingness and patience of potential home buyers who have been waiting for lower interest rates before making their purchase. With the Bank of Canada not anticipated to make any rate changes before its June meeting, some potential home buyers may feel stuck in limbo.”

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Kitchener Waterloo Real Estate Market Report February 2024

WATERLOO REGION ‘S HOUSING PRICES STABLE

BANK OF CANADA HOLDS RATES STEADY AT 5.0% AGAIN

“Home sales remained sluggish in February, up over last year’s record-breaking low, but still well below historical norms for February,” says Christal Moura, president of WRAR.      

“Examining benchmark and average prices for various property types over the past twelve months reveals a stable housing market in Waterloo Region,” says Moura.  “With the approaching spring market, both buyers and sellers can take comfort in the steadiness of prices we’ve seen, reinforcing the value of homeownership as a secure and prudent investment in the long run.”

BANK OF CANADA STATEMENT

The Bank of Canada has held its key interest rate at five per cent again, saying that it’s still too soon to consider rate cuts while underlying inflation persists.

“The assessment of the governing council is that we need to give higher interest rates more time to do their work,” said Macklem.

The Bank of Canada has maintained that it takes about 18 to 24 months for interest rate changes to work their way through the economy.

“It would be great if this worked faster, it would be great if it was less painful. But unfortunately, monetary policy, it does work slowly,” Macklem said later, while taking questions from reporters.

“It is an indirect channel. It’s got to work through the economy. It takes time to do that.”

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Kitchener Waterloo Real Estate Market Report November 2023

WATERLOO REGION HOME SALES COOL IN NOVEMBER

BANK OF CANADA HOLDS INTEREST RATE AGAIN – ECONOMIST PREDICTS RATE CUTS WILL START HAPPENING IN 2024

“Last month, the number of homes sold followed their typical pattern of cooling to match the weather, but with consumer confidence continuing to drop, we saw sales slump to their lowest level for November in over a decade,” says Christal Moura, president of WRAR. “With many still waiting to see what happens with interest rates in the months to come, homes are taking a little longer to sell, there’s more inventory on the market, all contributing to sale prices levelling off.”

“Canadians are feeling the pinch of affordability, leading to price adjustments in the housing market of Waterloo Region,” says Moura. “For prospective homebuyers, this slowdown presents an opportunity to enter the market during a less competitive phase and enjoy the advantages of homeownership in the long run.”

The bank raised the rate to its current level in July, but has stood still ever since, as the Canadian economy shows signs of cooling.
“The slowdown in the economy is reducing inflationary pressures in a broadening range of goods and services prices,” the bank said in announcing its decision.
“Governing Council is still concerned about risks to the outlook for inflation and remains prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed,” the bank, led by governor Tiff Macklem, said.
For economist Royce Mendes with Desjardins, however, that’s mostly an empty threat aimed at making sure markets don’t react too forcefully in assuming cuts are coming.
“Officials are probably just hesitant to prematurely declare victory in their battle with inflation,” Mendes said.

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Kitchener Waterloo Real Estate Market Report June 2023

DETACHED HOME AVERAGE PRICES EXCEED 1 MILLION DOLLARS
MORE HOMES SOLD YEAR OVER YEAR BUT STILL 12.3% DOWN COMPARED TO 5 YEAR AVERGAGE

“The real estate market in Waterloo Region showed signs of a rebound in June, with monthly sales increasing on a year-over-year basis for the first time this year,” says Megan Bell, president of WRAR. “The total number of home sales are down nearly 25 per cent for the first half of 2023 compared to last year but have been steadily climbing since January.”

“In June we saw robust demand for detached properties, driving a significant 10.5 per cent increase in the average sale price of a detached home,” says Bell. “While the central bank raised its benchmark interest rate to 4.75 per cent near the beginning of the month, demand remains strong. Buyers and sellers can expect a competitive market as the number of homes for sale continues to be well below the long-term average,” says Bell.

Bank of Canada will be releasing their Monetary Policy Report on July 12th along with an interest rate announcement. If you are in the market for a home and haven’t already it would be a good time to talk to your lender and lock in the interest rate from June 7th. Preapprovals are good normally for 90-120 days and if the rate drops you can always go back and get new rate.

The average detached home price for all of Ontario sits at $820,761 for June 2023. Waterloo Region continues to out perform with an average sale price for detached homes of $1,005,519 which correlates to December 2021 before the all time high of $1,209,493 in February 2022. Waterloo region is still a hot market. We are approaching 1.8 months of inventory over the last 5 years the we saw a maximum of of 2.1 months supply. While that still remains a sellers market there are more choices and flexibility in the market right now then we have seen in a long time. Waterloo Region hasn’t seen a balanced market since September 2012 at 4.9 months balanced market is considered to be 6 months inventory.

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Kitchener Waterloo Real Estate Market Report May 2023

REAL ESTATE ACTIVITY IS ELEVATING IN WATERLOO REGION

BANK OF CANADA RAISES OVERNIGHT RATE .25%

“Waterloo Region properties remain in high demand, driven by our diverse economy and the desirability of our community, we continue to be in a seller’s market,” says Bell. “With limited inventory and a relatively low number of new listings being added to the MLS® system, buyers face intensified competition while sellers receive increasingly competitive offers.”

“However, it’s worth noting that the number of listings being added to the MLS® System continues to be historically low.”
“The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 4¾%, with the Bank Rate at 5% and the deposit rate at 4¾%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.
Globally, consumer price inflation is coming down, largely reflecting lower energy prices compared to a year ago, but underlying inflation remains stubbornly high. While economic growth around the world is softening in the face of higher interest rates, major central banks are signaling that interest rates may have to rise further to restore price stability. In the United States, the economy is slowing, although consumer spending remains surprisingly resilient and the labour market is still tight. Economic growth has essentially stalled in Europe but upward pressure on core prices is persisting. Growth in China is expected to slow after surging in the first quarter. Financial conditions have tightened back to those seen before the bank failures in the United States and Switzerland.”

Over the last month we have seen the return of frantic buyers competing over only a handful of properties that generally meet their specifications. We are seeing bidding wars, double digit offer counts. The properties I’ve shown ended with winning offers in multiple hundreds of thousands over asking in extremely short time frames some as short as 48hrs most between 3 and 5 days. There is some good news too there are select properties our there that are not experience these frenzied buyers and can still be potentially had for asking or possibly below asking. It’s important to remember that generally speaking the list price is not the market price. It’s important to work with a realtor who is able to accurately predict the market price of a property.

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Kitchener Waterloo Real Estate Market Report April 2023

HOME PRICES CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN WATERLOO REGION

LACK OF SUPPLY AND HIGH DEMAND DRIVING PRICES UP

“The local spring market is off to a slower than usual start with half the number of new listings hitting the market than this time last year,”

“Waterloo Region remains a sellers’ market, and while prices have fallen in comparison to last year, we anticipate that home prices will continue to increase steadily,” says Bell. “Some stability in mortgage rates has brought about a return of buyer activity as we begin to observe a return of multiple offer scenarios, bidding wars, and a decrease in the number of days properties take to sell.”

While properties under 1.5 million continue to be a sellers market, luxury properties are making a shift towards a more balanced market. We may see the return of the 1 million dollar average home price in August to September of this year as we are only currently $75,000 away.

If you are thinking about selling now is the time as we approach that window to allow 60-90 days closing before school starts in September. A 90 day closing setups up an occupancy date of mid august.

If the first part of this month is any indication we are going to see the return of high prices and frantic bidding wars again. Properties I’ve been showing are down to often 7 days on the market and some as low as 2 with the resurgence of double digit bids and multiple hundreds of thousands over asking. However there are also properties that are sitting on the the market for months and experiencing price reductions as well. It’s extremely important to have a full time Realtor that is monitoring the market and property types you’re interested in to ensure you act appropriately based on the demand for that specific property.

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Kitchener Waterloo Real Estate Market Report March 2023

HOME PRICES INCREASING IN WATERLOO REGION

NON STOP SHOWINGS AND BIDDING WARS ARE RETURNING

In the past month, Waterloo Region has witnessed a resurgence of the 2022 real estate market with 50-100 showings per week, and some homes experiencing bidding wars again. The prices of properties are also increasing, and some are fetching 10-20 offers, selling for more than their asking prices. Astonishingly, even the properties that require a lot of renovation, updating, even fire restoration are going for up to 60-100K over their asking prices within a week of listing.

Although prices are down from the peak February 2022, the trend is still upward if that is excluded from the data. Compared to two years ago, the prices are still on the rise. This indicates that the demand for properties in the Waterloo Region is still high, buyers are feeling the pinch of increasing interest rates and prices. This has resulted in many prospective buyers feeling left out, while sellers are reluctant to list their homes as they feel that they may miss out on 20% of the value of their properties if compared to the data anomaly of February 2022.

Despite the government’s intervention in trying to cool the housing market, it seems to have had no impact on the Waterloo Region. The combination of buyers’ and sellers’ concerns has created the perfect storm for the housing market to return to the insanity of 2022. Welcome to the spring market of 2023! Are you ready?